What this is

No new concepts. This combines Lessons 5-11 into one judgment call, the same one a VC makes before deciding whether to bring a deal to the partnership for a term sheet.

The company: Northbeam Health

  • Seed stage, raising $3m at a $16m post-money valuation
  • Team: CEO previously ran clinical ops at a mid-size hospital chain; CTO shipped two prior products, no exit
  • Product: scheduling and triage software for outpatient clinics; retention curve flattens around 78% at Week 12 (strong for B2B, Lesson 9)
  • Traction: $22k MRR, growing 18% MoM, roughly 40% of new revenue from referrals, not paid acquisition
  • Market: SOM estimated at ~$180m over 5 years (Lesson 8), driven by a recent reimbursement-rule change making outpatient scheduling software newly fundable for clinics
  • Competition: two larger incumbents, both built for hospitals, not outpatient clinics specifically; no direct outpatient-focused competitor yet

MRR

$22k

MoM growth

18%

Retention (Wk 12)

78%

Referral share

40%

SOM (5yr)

~$180m

The question

Would you bring this to the partnership for a term sheet? Work through it before reading on.

A reasonable read: yes. The team has directly relevant domain expertise (Lesson 7), the retention curve genuinely flattens at a strong level for B2B (Lesson 9), 18% MoM growth with 40% coming from referral is a healthy mix, not paid-dependent (Lesson 10), and the regulatory shift gives a concrete, checkable reason for "why now" (Lesson 8). The real open question, worth pressure-testing hard in diligence, is defensibility: no direct competitor yet is a green flag today and a risk tomorrow if the incumbents decide to build an outpatient-specific product, exactly the kind of gap Lesson 11 asks you to name explicitly rather than assume away.

Try this yourself

Change one input at a time and see whether your recommendation flips:

  • Referral share is 5% instead of 40%, everything else unchanged, still a yes?
  • The regulatory change reverses next year, does the "why now" thesis survive?
  • Retention flattens at 45% instead of 78%, at what point does that alone kill the deal?

If you can talk through why each of these would change your answer, you're ready for the Intermediate tier, starting at Lesson 13.