One connected chain
Everything from Lesson 13 onward chains into one model:
Entry price → Financing → EBITDA plan → Cash generation → Debt paydown → Exit value → MOIC / IRR
Walking Meridian through the whole chain
£160m entry EV (8× × £20m EBITDA, Lesson 13) → £96m debt / £64m equity (Lesson 15) → EBITDA grows to £28m by year 5 (Lesson 18's growth lever) → £6m/year free cash flow pays down roughly £30m of debt (Lessons 16-17) → exit at the same 8× multiple on £28m EBITDA = £224m EV, minus £66m remaining debt = £158m equity value at exit. This course's earlier lessons rounded that to £150m for cleaner numbers, so treat £150-158m as the honest range → roughly 2.3-2.5× MOIC, high-teens IRR over a 5-year hold.
This is what an investment case actually is: not a single number, but this whole chain, with every link checkable against the lessons behind it.
| Metric | Entry | Exit (year 5) |
|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | £20m | £28m |
| Multiple | 8x | 8x (flat) |
| Debt | £96m | £66m |
| Equity value | £64m | £158m |
Checkpoint
- An investment case: is the full chain from entry price to exit return, not a standalone multiple or growth estimate.
- Every link in the chain: should be traceable back to a specific, challengeable assumption.
If anything here still feels unclear, ask before moving to Lesson 23.